According to a report by Anadolu news agency, on August 2nd, during a phone call with Putin, the Turkish president emphasized the importance of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which he sees as a "bridge to the world." The Turkish leader noted that the inaction of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for an extended period is not beneficial to anyone and that the countries with low incomes in need of grain will suffer the most. Erdogan stated that Turkey will continue to make efforts and use all its diplomatic tools to ensure the resumption of the "grain deal."
According to the Ukrainian Grain Association's estimation, from July 2023 to June 2024, Ukraine could potentially export about 44.8 million tons of grain and oilseeds. Therefore, Ukrainian authorities are currently exploring alternative routes for grain exports, such as creating a new "grain corridor" through the territorial waters of Romania, Turkey, and Bulgaria. The drawback of this option is that any vessel entering Ukrainian territorial waters, which it does when entering Ukrainian ports, could be attacked by Russia. Another option for global carriers seeking to export Ukrainian grain to the world market is through railway, road transport, and via Danube River to European countries. However, these routes have limitations on the amount of grain that can be exported due to reduced transport capacities, border-crossing issues, and rising transportation costs. Ukraine places special hopes on transportation via the Danube River. This route will allow Ukrainian farmers to export up to 2 million tons of their products monthly and increase food export volumes through Romania's territory. Currently, parties are seeking ways to expedite the goods transshipment procedure at the border due to the difference in track gauge between Ukrainian and European railways and optimally utilize the Romanian port of Constanta. The port's capacity is 25 million tons of grain per year, but Ukraine won't be able to use it to its full potential as Romanian farmers also need to export their produce. Negotiations with Croatia also hold significance. An agreement has been reached with this country not only to use ports on the Adriatic Sea but also on the Danube River. Thanks to this, Ukraine will be able to load grain in its Danube ports and deliver it via the river to Croatia, from where it will be transported to the sea. In collaboration with the European Commission, Ukraine is also developing another export route through the ports of Baltic countries, which is also logistically challenging as the grain needs to be transported by rail first.
On August 8th, the Ukrainian Navy announced temporary corridors for the movement of commercial vessels traveling to or from ports in Ukraine in the Black Sea. It is specified that a military threat and mine danger from the Russian Federation persist along all routes. These previously stated routes were proposed by Ukraine in its communication to the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The Council of the International Maritime Organization recognized Ukraine's right to free commercial navigation guaranteed by international maritime law. The IMO also called on Russia to abide by international conventions and cease threats to commercial navigation in the Black Sea. The temporary corridors for the movement of commercial vessels will primarily be used for the departure of civilian ships that have been in Ukrainian ports, such as Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Yuzhny, since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Prior to following these routes, vessels whose owners/captains officially confirm their readiness to sail under current conditions will be allowed.
The problem of returning to the agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain can only be successfully resolved if the international community collectively exerts pressure on Russia. Peter Stano, the official spokesperson for the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, stated on Thursday, August 10th, during a briefing in Brussels, that the efforts of the international community, primarily with the support of Turkey under the United Nations, continue. There is an international consensus that a return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative is necessary. In his opinion, the efforts are ongoing and are being conducted with the support of the entire international community, which is assisting in these endeavors.
The shortage of Ukrainian products could prompt Beijing to pressure Moscow to reinstate the "grain agreement," as China is the largest consumer of Ukrainian grain. Chinese ports have received a quarter of all Ukrainian agricultural products transported through the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
https://www.24brussels.online/post/the-question-of-continuing-the-grain-initiative
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