Pisałem na blogu o świecie ujemnym i jego patologiach, które będą nam towarzyszyły bardzo długo.
Pisałem, że nawyki, doświadczenia i wiedza nabyta w świecie dodatnim, może być szkodliwa w świecie ujemnym. Dzisiaj mamy kolejny przykład. Wiedza finansowa w świecie dodatnim sugeruje, że nie wolno trzymać pieniędzy pod materacem, bo tracą wartość z powodu inflacji. Trzeba je zanieść do banku, tam pieniążki będą oprocentowane bardziej niż inflacja, więc zamiast tracić na inflacji będziemy zarabiać. Tymczasem, ponieważ EBC wprowadziło ujemne stopy procentowe dla banków, które deponują pieniądze w EBC, żeby zachęcić banki komercyjne do udzielania kredytów. Bezskutecznie, wolumen kredytów spada, zgodnie z zasadami świata ujemnego. Za to banki zareagowały na działania EBC i obniżyły oprocentowanie rachunków, a jeden z banków niemieckich wprowadził oprocentowanie ujemne -0,25 procent (co prawda tylko dla bogatych, ale to dopiero początek). Zatem lepiej jest trzymać pieniądze pod materacem niż w tym banku. Nawyki świata dodatniego prowadzą do złych decyzji w świecie ujemnym.
NBP ogłosił nową projekcję inflacji, jest znacznie niższa, nie sięga nawet półtora procent w 2016 roku. Według NBP wyjdziemy ze świata ujemnego (teraz mamy deflację) do świata delikatnie dodatniego. Oby!
www.rybinski.eu
Krzysztof Rybiński
Economy of the XXI century - https://www.mpolska24.pl/blog/economy-of-the-xxi-century
Professor Krzysztof Rybinski holds MA in computer sciences, and Ph.D. in economics. He has an extensive professional background. He worked as software engineer in Tokyo, director of the Soros Foundation programs in CEE, a consultant to the World Bank. He was chief economist and managing director at commercial banks. In 2004, he was appointed the Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Poland by the President of Poland and performed this function for four years until 2008. He was in charge of research, foreign exchange reserves management, payment systems, cash circulation management, monetary statistics and international relations. Under his supervision National Bank of Poland changed its investment strategy which resulted in additional one billion dollars profit for Poland. In 2004-2005, he was member of the EU Economic and Financial Committee, and in 2007-2008 a member of the Polish Financial Services Authority. In 2007-2008 he served as a World Bank alternate governor for Poland. He was also member of the supervisory boards of several financial sector companies (2008-2009) and Partner in Ernst & Young Poland (2008-2010). Since 2010, he has been Professor and President of Vistula University in Warsaw, which offers education to students from more than 30 countries. In 2012 he launched the investment fund called EUROGEDDON, its investment strategy assumes deepening financial crisis in the Eurozone. The fund launch was covered by Financial Times and CNN International.
Krzysztof Rybinski was economic advisor to several Polish governments. In the last few years he was a coauthor of country higher education strategy, e-government strategy and intellectual capital strategy.
Krzysztof Rybinski is author of numerous refereed papers in economics and (co) author of several books. In March 2012 ranking he was ranked the fourth best Polish economist by number of scientific citations. In October 2012 he received the business award of most respected Polish economist. He has also contributed hundreds of articles on economics and financial markets to Polish newspapers. He published in The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and The Economist. He was the first senior central banker in the world to have started a popular and often quoted by media economic blog www.rybinski.eu already in 2006.
mPolska24
